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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 15 May 14
USA COAL CONFERENCE
Press Release: IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of information and analysis, will host the Coal USA Conference, June 18-20, 2014, ...
Wednesday, 14 May 14
COAL PRICES IN CHINA HAVE DROPPED TO THEIR LOWEST LEVELS SINCE END-2008
COALspot.com: Coal prices in China have dropped to their lowest levels since end-2008, Fitch says in its latest rating report on one of the coal ...
Wednesday, 14 May 14
ALMOST THROUGH THE HALF OF THE YEAR, THE DRY BULK INDEX SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKNESS; CREATING TO BOTH EXISTING SHIP OWNERS AND POTENTIAL INVESTORS A LOT OF INSECURITY - PANOS MAKRINOS
Almost through the half of the year, the overall shipping market and more specifically the Dry Bulk Index show signs of weakness, creating to bo ...
Tuesday, 13 May 14
NPC COAL EXPORT VOLUMES PLUNGE TO 2.48 MMT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 12 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Quee ...
Tuesday, 13 May 14
YET ANOTHER POSIDONIA EXHIBITION IS ON ITS WAY - INTERMODAL
With less than a month to go before another Posidonia exhibition starts and all the parties and celebrations get under way we thought that it wo ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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