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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 08 May 14
'TRIAL BY MEDIA, TRIAL BY LAW' - A REPORT FROM TRACK 1 OF BIMCO'S ANNUAL CONFERENCE DUBAI 2014
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Aiming to bring a very different type of event into their annual conference, BIMCO presented ‘Double Jeopardy &n ...
Thursday, 08 May 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN MAY CRASHES THROUGH $74
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has revised down again the coal bench mark price by US$ 1.21 / MT to ...
Wednesday, 07 May 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOTED ANOTHER WEEKLY POSITIVE GAIN
Chartering (Wet: Softer- / Dry: Stable+)
The Dry Bulk market has noted another weekly positive gain, driven by the Capesize segment, but we ne ...
Wednesday, 07 May 14
SGX ENHANCES ITS COMMODITIES PRODUCT OFFERING
COALspot.com: SGX is building up its bulk commodity product offerings with 9 more derivative contracts over the next 2 months, subject to regula ...
Tuesday, 06 May 14
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORT SLIPS 7.92% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 5 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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