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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 02 May 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT AT -0.1%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Friday, 02 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWING SIGNS OF COMEBACK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market which has been hovering below the 1,000-point market (BDI) during the past couple of weeks, could be exhibiting signs of a s ...
Thursday, 01 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL REELING UNDER PRESSURE FROM VARIOUS FACTORS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's revival is still overdue, as the industry's benchmark, the BDI is still lagging below the 1,000-point mark. In fac ...
Wednesday, 30 April 14
FREIGHT MARKET FOR DRY BULKERS STILL REMAINS WEAK - INTERMODAL
One week after the Easter holiday and the celebration for the resurrection of Christ, everybody expected to see a similar sign of a revival in t ...
Tuesday, 29 April 14
Q4 SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 1.07 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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