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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 25 April 14
2ND MYANMAR ELECTRIC POWER CONVENTION 2014 IS THE GATEWAY TO MYANMAR POWER INDUSTRY!
Press Release: 2nd Myanmar Electric Power Convention (MEPC) 2014 is scheduled on 21-23 October, 2014 at Traders Hotel in Yangon, Myanmar. MEPC o ...
Friday, 25 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR NEW TRACTION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market seems to have gained its footing after the past few dissapointing weeks, during which the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) shedded mos ...
Thursday, 24 April 14
HANDY : A FLOW OF FRESH REQUIREMENTS LIFTING THE PACIFIC SLOWLY TO US$ 10-11 K BSS SINGAPORE FOR COAL ROUNDS
Handy
There is still no place to hide in the Atlantic for the smaller but flexible sizes. Slow and weak seems to be the headlines, although th ...
Wednesday, 23 April 14
EUROPE WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REPLACE RUSSIAN GAS, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
A ban on Russian gas imports to the EU would cause substantial disruption to Europe's economy and industry, Fitch Ratings says. In the immed ...
Wednesday, 23 April 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR LOW VOLATILE BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 90,000 Metric Tons (MT) of low volatile bit ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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