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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Sunday, 20 April 14
FREIGHT RATES END WEEK ON WEAK NOTE - VISTAAR
Wish you all Happy Easter.
The freight market continued to its downwards as BDI was fell 7.187 percent to 930 points week on week.
The ...
Friday, 18 April 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 1% TO 18.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 17 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET ON RETREAT MODE, WHILE NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY STALLS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on retreating this week, a pattern which emerged since late March. Yesterday the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended yet a ...
Wednesday, 16 April 14
INDONESIA'S FEBRUARY 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME FELL 2.41%
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.77* billio ...
Wednesday, 16 April 14
Q1 2014 : TERMS OF FREIGHT RATES THE PERFORMANCE IN THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS NOT MET THE HIGH EXPECTATIONS - INTERMODAL
This year the dates for the celebration of Easter will coincide for the Orthodox and the Catholic, so we are already seeing most people in the m ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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