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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 15 April 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 14 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 14 April 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 60.12 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 14 April 14
INDONESIA'S Q1 COAL PRODUCTION LITTLE CHANGED EVEN WITH PRICE DROP - INVESTOR DAILY
Indonesia’s coal production by volume in the first quarter remained little changed from the same period last year despite the decline in t ...
Monday, 14 April 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN FOR THE MONTH & WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.18 per mt as ...
Monday, 14 April 14
CHINA'S MEASURES TO STIMULATE ECONOMY'S GROWTH COULD OFFER ROOM FOR STABILITY IN SHIPPING MARKETS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Since the outbreak of the 2008-crisis, the shipping industry, in most of its aspects, i.e. dry bulk and tanker markets alike, has been dealing w ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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