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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 29 April 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 3.03 MILLION TONS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 28 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Tuesday, 29 April 14
Q2 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST 0.29% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 0.29 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.43 per mt as o ...
Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government ...
Sunday, 27 April 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market seems to have bottomed out and saw some marginal gains in all segments, said Capt. Reddy of Vistaar Shipping In ...
Friday, 25 April 14
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 19 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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