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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Monday, 12 May 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT AROUND 1 MMT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL DURING AUGUST 2014 THROUGH NOVEMBER 2014
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 1.050 million tons of sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant through open t ...
Monday, 12 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING TO FIND FIRM FOOTING
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be weak and the BDI closed slightly lower at 997 points or fell 1.96 pct week on week. The cape in ...
Friday, 09 May 14
RBCT SHIPPED 5.4 MMT OF COAL IN APRIL
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the single largest coal export terminal in the world, shipped 5.45 million to ...
Friday, 09 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET: BANKRUPTCY TONNAGE UNLEASHED
Drewry’s latest Dry Bulk Forecaster saw freight rates on most routes declined in 2014’s first quarter as the previous quarter’ ...
Friday, 09 May 14
UNITED STATES COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY SLIDES TO 82.4 MMST IN APRIL
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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