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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Monday, 19 May 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL LOST 2.49% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.49 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.35 per mt as on F ...
Sunday, 18 May 14
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady with the BDI was closed slightly higher at 1027 points or up 3.00 pct week on week.
The Cape ...
Friday, 16 May 14
KOMIPO IS LOOKING FOR 60K MT OF LOW VOLATILE BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 60,000 Metric Tons (MT) of low volatile bitumi ...
Friday, 16 May 14
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 18.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 15 May 14
PANAMAX : SHORT PERIOD UP TO ONE YEAR REPORTED IN THE 12.000-12.500 RANGE - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Supra and handy market seems to be affected by the recent holidays in Singapore which still relatively quiet. There are some Indo / ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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