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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seabo ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP 39.11 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 19 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with sl ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY CLAIMS PARAGON SHIPPING'S HEAD MICHAEL BODOUROGLOU
The dry bulk market is bound for a recovery in the coming weeks, as the market will be better balanced, said Mr. Michael Bodouroglou, Chairman and ...
Monday, 19 May 14
INDO COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON WEEK AND ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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