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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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