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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Monday, 08 January 24
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Friday, 05 January 24
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Friday, 05 January 24
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India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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