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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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