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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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