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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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