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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Sunday, 10 September 23
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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