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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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