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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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