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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
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Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
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Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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