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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 25 April 14
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 19 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Friday, 25 April 14
2ND MYANMAR ELECTRIC POWER CONVENTION 2014 IS THE GATEWAY TO MYANMAR POWER INDUSTRY!
Press Release: 2nd Myanmar Electric Power Convention (MEPC) 2014 is scheduled on 21-23 October, 2014 at Traders Hotel in Yangon, Myanmar. MEPC o ...
Friday, 25 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR NEW TRACTION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market seems to have gained its footing after the past few dissapointing weeks, during which the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) shedded mos ...
Thursday, 24 April 14
HANDY : A FLOW OF FRESH REQUIREMENTS LIFTING THE PACIFIC SLOWLY TO US$ 10-11 K BSS SINGAPORE FOR COAL ROUNDS
Handy
There is still no place to hide in the Atlantic for the smaller but flexible sizes. Slow and weak seems to be the headlines, although th ...
Wednesday, 23 April 14
EUROPE WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REPLACE RUSSIAN GAS, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
A ban on Russian gas imports to the EU would cause substantial disruption to Europe's economy and industry, Fitch Ratings says. In the immed ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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