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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 02 May 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT AT -0.1%, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Friday, 02 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWING SIGNS OF COMEBACK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market which has been hovering below the 1,000-point market (BDI) during the past couple of weeks, could be exhibiting signs of a s ...
Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force o ...
Thursday, 01 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL REELING UNDER PRESSURE FROM VARIOUS FACTORS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's revival is still overdue, as the industry's benchmark, the BDI is still lagging below the 1,000-point mark. In fac ...
Wednesday, 30 April 14
FREIGHT MARKET FOR DRY BULKERS STILL REMAINS WEAK - INTERMODAL
One week after the Easter holiday and the celebration for the resurrection of Christ, everybody expected to see a similar sign of a revival in t ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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