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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 29 April 14
Q4 SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 1.07 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Tuesday, 29 April 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 3.03 MILLION TONS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 28 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Tuesday, 29 April 14
Q2 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST 0.29% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 0.29 percent month on month and closed at US$ 75.43 per mt as o ...
Monday, 28 April 14
CHINA LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF NUCLEAR POWER TARGETS AT 175GW OF CAPACITY BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal will remain dominant supply at 64% of power mix
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China will not meet its environmentally-driven, government ...
Sunday, 27 April 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market seems to have bottomed out and saw some marginal gains in all segments, said Capt. Reddy of Vistaar Shipping In ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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