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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 23 April 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR LOW VOLATILE BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 90,000 Metric Tons (MT) of low volatile bit ...
Tuesday, 22 April 14
INDONESIAN MARCH COAL EXPORT VOLUME SURGE 9.12% TO 35.54 MMT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.9 ...
Tuesday, 22 April 14
NEWCASTLE WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FELL 13.33% THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 21 April 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensl ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q1'15 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q2’ 2014 gain on month and on week according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports rele ...
Monday, 21 April 14
Q4 2014 AND Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED MARGINALLY HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2 PRICES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries gained 0.87 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.15 per mt as ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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