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Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the back of low seasonal demand. As a result, freight rates fell across the board, although the Handysize market is still close to a three-year high. In its latest report on the market, issued yesterday, BIMCO said that it believes that "the level of Capesize TC average rates will remain and stay around USD 4,500-10,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 5,000-11,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 7,000-11,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are expected to stay strong in the region of USD 7,000-9,500 per day".
In his outlook on the market, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Mr. Peter Sand noted that "as Q4-2013 was a massively strong quarter, the seasonal slowdown in Q1-2014 is likely to weigh a bit heavier than normally on freight rates. A drop of 8.8% in selected commodity volumes represent a clear seasonal direction in Q1, but if we look a bit further into the remaining three quarters, they all provide a solid rebound in demand. Chinese iron ore imports especially, but also the dry bulk market in general, is trailing off around the Chinese New Year season" he stated.
According to the report, "demand will be lower than in undisrupted months and thermal coal demand begins to ease as the Winter season in the northern hemisphere loses its grip. General shipping of nickel ore and bauxite will be far below normal levels because of the Indonesian ban– this in itself represents a change in demand beyond seasonality. Similar to the trend forecast in BIMCO Reflections 2014, demand will be centred on the major commodities. That trend has already affected Capesize rates in the most brutal way, as earnings have now entered into the sub-USD 10,000 per day zone; a decline of some 75% since early December".
Meanwhile, "in all the other segments volatility is more subdued, and over- and undershooting (up or down) seen to a lesser extent. At the end of January, Handysize tonnage is still earning in excess of USD 10,000 per day on a T/C average. This is a three-year high.
Q1 holds little room for upside, with most focus being on weather related disruptions in e.g. Australia to intrude on normal trading as well as regulatory issues affecting not just Indonesian exports but Columbian coal exports and Indian exports/imports in general, e.g. via export duties. As demand in volumes grew by 5.4% in 2013, the fundamental market balance only improved if slow steaming was applied more extensively. BIMCO believes that was the case, but only marginally. For 2014, an improvement in the market balance is clearly achievable. For it to materialise, owners and operators need to apply slow steaming to at least the same extent as last year. Only by managing the supply side carefully will higher earnings follow in the wake", it was noted.
Supply
In terms of supply, which is equally if not even more crucial to the long term viability of the industry, BIMCO said that "the demolition side of shipping will be amongst the “ones to watch” in 2014. As the order book keeps building up and eventually brings around more newbuild tonnage to cater for demand, owners might consider taking advantage of the strong demolition prices currently available to let go of less efficient ships.
In 2013, 22.2 million DWT was demolished, mostly in the smaller segments. This was 50% below the level of 2012 but considered a strong number, one that is unlikely to be repeated this year. The average age of a scrapped Capesize was 24, whereas the average demolished Handysize vessel was 30 years of age. Going forward, try to consider this as a potential scenario: the current stock of dry bulk shipping capacity equals 728 million DWT. All ships built in 1993 or earlier comprise just 68 million DWT, which is less than 10%. In comparison, taking out all ships beyond the average scrapping age in recent years (29 years), comprises just 20 million DWT. History tells us that is unlikely to happen, especially in a rising market. Thus, BIMCO forecasts 14 million DWT (or 1.9% of the current fleet) will be demolished in 2014. The fleet grew by 40 million DWT net in 2013, equal to 5.9%. BIMCO forecasts that 2014 holds 47 million DWT of newbuild capacity in store, which will be offset by 14 million DWT, leaving the fleet to bring supply growth of 4.5% around. Such a growth rate denotes an 11-year low. 2015 is already set for higher growth rates, so 2014 represents a short temporary dampening of the high growth of the fleet", it was mentioned.
"As regards the orderbook, the number of new Panamax orders has been extremely slim, in 2013 accounting for just 16% of the capacity ordered. This is a clear counterbalancing statement by the industry in response to the high fleet growth seen in that segment in the previous 15 months. Despite new orders for 197 Capesizes and 80 million DWT in total, the size of the dry bulk fleet today means that the orderbook-to-fleet ratio in the Capesize segment and total dry bulk fleet lands at just 20.5% and 20.7% respectively", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 21 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET UPS AND - MOST RECENTLY - DOWNS OFFERS NO ROOM FOR RELAXING AMONG DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's latest demise, with the market retrating once again, since the end of March, has come at a time, when most ship owners ...
Sunday, 20 April 14
FREIGHT RATES END WEEK ON WEAK NOTE - VISTAAR
Wish you all Happy Easter.
The freight market continued to its downwards as BDI was fell 7.187 percent to 930 points week on week.
The ...
Friday, 18 April 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 1% TO 18.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 17 April 14
DRY BULK MARKET ON RETREAT MODE, WHILE NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY STALLS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on retreating this week, a pattern which emerged since late March. Yesterday the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended yet a ...
Wednesday, 16 April 14
INDONESIA'S FEBRUARY 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME FELL 2.41%
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.77* billio ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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