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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Wednesday, 15 January 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL BY 6.57% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 6.57 percept month on month and closed at US$ 78.90 per mt as ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
INDONESIAN MINING LAW AVERTS BOP PRESSURE, RISKS REMAIN, FITCH SAYS
The last-minute intervention at the weekend by Indonesia's politicians to avert a significant disruption of mining activity and exports, should lim ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
Q3 AND Q4 INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS DECLINE MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost $ 1.23 pmt month on month on Friday 10 January 2014. T ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
PANAMAX: PACIFIC - REMAINED QUIET; ATLANTIC - CONTINUED THEIR RETREAT
COALspot.com: The holiday hangover seems well underway for the Dry Bulk market that saw more ground being lost this past week. The BDI has closed of ...
Tuesday, 14 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FALL 18.28 %
COALspot.com: In the week ended January 13, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.67 ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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