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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Thursday, 09 January 14
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA FREIGHT IS NOW DOWN IN THE $8S AND STILL DROPPING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
In the Atlantic we see rates sliding slowly for the start of 2014. Several players cvrd over the holidays and the rate decline was som ...
Thursday, 09 January 14
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2013 AND LOOKING FORWARD GLOBAL ECONOMY: STEADY AS SHE GOES UPWARDS - BIMCO
Over the past year, developed economies have gained traction while developing and emerging economies have suffered from slower growth. Despite key e ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS LOOKING BRIGHTER DESPITE SLOW START TO THE NEW YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market's benchmark, the BDI has been on a fall since the start of 2014, ending yesterday's session down to 1,87 ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FALL
COALspot.com: In the week ended January 6, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.27 m ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST SOME OF ITS STEAM THESE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS: INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Softer- / Dry: Softer- )
The Dry Bulk market has lost some of its steam these past couple of days although hires, espe ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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