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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Monday, 13 January 14
INDONESIAN ORE BAN TO HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINESE ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says today that Indonesia's ban on exports of unprocessed mineral ore will have limited impact on Chinese aluminium pro ...
Sunday, 12 January 14
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK - SOLYM CARRIERS
Wish You A very Happy New Year
COALspot.com: The market has dropped quite a lot as expected due to holidays and probably also the effect of ban o ...
Friday, 10 January 14
DECISION ON ORE EXPORT BAN WILL BE MADE TOMORROW: INDUSTRY MINISTER, JG SAYS
Industry Minister M.S. Hidayat dismissed reports on Thursday that the government had made a decision on the matter. “We will only make a decis ...
Friday, 10 January 14
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.8% ON WEEK IN WEEK ENDED SATURDAY 4 JANUARY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 09 January 14
THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT EASES ORE EXPORT BAN
COALspot.com: The Indonesian government has finally agreed to ease the ore-export ban just a few days before the Sunday deadline amid protests from ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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