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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Friday, 17 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET ENDS DECLINE, BOUNCES BACK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's been a rough start to the New Year for the dry bulk market, which was supposed to be on the verge of rallying to new heights this year, on the ...
Friday, 17 January 14
SPOT COAL PRICE TRENDS IN US VARY ACROSS KEY BASINS DURING 2013, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com: Spot steam coal price trends in US varied across key basins in 2013, a latest EIA report says. Compared with 2012, while total coal de ...
Thursday, 16 January 14
PANAMAX : THE GAP BETWEEN SPOT AND PERIOD HAS INCREASED IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
In the Atlantic we have seen rates slowly sliding on lack of enough fresh business. USG/Continent still paying excess 28k and seems on an upw ...
Thursday, 16 January 14
SHIP OWNERS SCRAP 1,119 SHIPS DURING 2013 ON THE BACK OF OVERSUPPLY ISSUES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Scrapping of older vessels is still the best bet that ship owners can make, in order to improve their newer vessels' fortunes, amid an oversupply o ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
KOREA MIDLAND POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 360K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR ITS BORYEONG PLANT
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 360,000 Metric Tons (MT) of sub-bituminous ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
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