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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Thursday, 23 January 14
30 DAYS LEFT TO REGISTER FOR PACIFIC BASIN COAL CONFERENCE
COALspot.com: (Press Release) : IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of information and analysis, will host the Pacific Basin Coal Confer ...
Wednesday, 22 January 14
HANDY/SMAX: TALK OF RATES INDICATES A STEADY TO FIRMING TREND - INTERMODAL
Last week closed off on the red once more for the Dry Bulk market, which continues to see freight rates trying to get steady feet. Nonetheless, with ...
Wednesday, 22 January 14
EXPORT BAN ON UNPROCESSED MINERALS EFFECTIVE 12 JANUARY 2014 - THREE - YEAR REPRIEVE FOR SOME, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS: PWC
COALspot.com: On 11 January 2014, only hours before a long-debated ban on the export of unprocessed minerals was to come into effect, the Government ...
Wednesday, 22 January 14
DRY SECTOR: SENTIMENT REMAINS STRONG - INTERMODAL
As we have now entered 2014 and the Chinese are soon entering their Year of the Horse (sit tight for the ride!), it is a great opportunity to see ho ...
Wednesday, 22 January 14
SGX SUCCESSFULLY LAUNCHED FREIGHT FUTURES
COALspot.com: Singapore exchanged announced that, SGX Freight Futures were successfully launched on 20 January 2014, and the first trade ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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