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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Tuesday, 28 January 14
RESOURCE NATIONALISM OR PROTECTIONISM FOR THE MINING AND EXTRACTIVES INDUSTRY - JOHN WHITTAKER & MICHAEL SWANGARD
Resource nationalism or protectionism for the mining and extractives industry as well as soft commodities sector and the oil industry.
‘Res ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS RETREAT TO OLD 'HABITS', REFUSING TO DEMOLISH OLD VESSELS, THREATENING MARKET RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
If one thing is clear as we reflect on the 2013 shipping markets, it's that ship owners took advantage of low prices, in order to acquire newer ton ...
Monday, 27 January 14
MERCATOR SINGAPORE REPORTS 52% INCREASE IN EBITDA FOR Q3 FY 2014 AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS QUARTER
COALspot.com: Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited, a leading Indian-owned international dry bulk shipping company that operates a fleet of fourteen d ...
Monday, 27 January 14
13TH CLEAN COAL FORUM 2014
COALspot.com: (Press Release) - Produced by CDMC Events, The 13th Clean Coal Forum 2014 will be held on June 12 &13 2014 in Beijing, China. We a ...
Monday, 27 January 14
Q3 & Q4 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery lost 4.45 percent month on month and closed at US$ 79.05 per mt as on Frid ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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