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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Monday, 03 February 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – Swaps prices gained for thermal coal loading from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the fuel, according SGX.
...
Monday, 03 February 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CONTRACTS FALL
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery lost 4.71 percent month on month and closed at US$ 78.87 per mt as on Frid ...
Monday, 03 February 14
COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The BDI is fell 50 pct over last one month which seems to be one of the lowest fall in last few years.
The BDI was down by 11 ...
Friday, 31 January 14
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 19.2 MMST W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 31 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET STILL ON A FALL, EXPECTED TO WORSEN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is definitely in the doldrums since the start of the year, in what could only be described as a "lost" month for indus ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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