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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Thursday, 06 February 14
THE WORLD LARGEST COAL EXPORTER SHIPPED AROUND 35.90 MMT OF COAL IN DECEMBER 2013
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world 4th largest coal producer and the Global largest multi grade coal exporter shipped around $2* billion worth ...
Thursday, 06 February 14
PANAMAX: FAR EAST IS ALMOST ABSENT AND ATLANTIC ON SLOW STEAM
Handy
Due to ongoing Chinese New Year the market is still quiet. Slowly we can see some fresh coal cargos entering the market with second half Feb/ ...
Wednesday, 05 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST FURTHER GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market has lost further ground this past week as activity ex-Far East disappeared into the Chinese holidays and owners id ...
Wednesday, 05 February 14
MARKET INSIGHT - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: Let's take a break from market prospects, numbers, order book etc. and shed some light on the conclusions of ...
Tuesday, 04 February 14
NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS HIT NEW HIGH OF 3.53 MMT
COALspot.com: In the week ended 3 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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