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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Wednesday, 12 February 14
NEW BUILDING ORDERS REACHING NEW POST-CRISIS HEIGHTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of the last few attractive deals in the new building market, before prices start climbing to new highs and ...
Wednesday, 12 February 14
2013 WAS THE YEAR OF PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDING - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: People say that money makes the world go round. Well, can it be that it’s the other way around? Is it possible that money needs ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAP SHOWS STRONG GROWTH IN 2014 SECOND HALF
COALspot.com – Swaps prices slide for thermal coal loading from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the fuel, according SGX.
T ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIDE AROUND 15% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 10 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Tuesday, 11 February 14
SHIP OWNERS INVEST IN 447 NEWBUILDINGS AND SECOND HAND VESSELS DURING JANUARY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite a rough start to the year for the dry bulk freight market and lackluster performance from most other shipping sub-segments, ship owners have ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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