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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the signific ...
Thursday, 20 February 14
SUPRAMAX: IN ASIA IS IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURNED FROM APS TO DOP MARKET
Handy
The activity is back in the market after Chinese holidays. Supramax in Asia is improving significantly and turned from APS to DOP market. We ...
Wednesday, 19 February 14
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 30% MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 17 February 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
Tuesday, 18 February 14
PERUVIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER FOR MINING AFFAIRS WILL BE KEY NOTE SPEAKER AT THE COLOMBIAN COAL CONFERENCE 2014
Press Release: The High Commissioner for Mining Affairs in the Presidency of the Peruvian Council of Ministers, General (R) Daniel Urresti Elera, ha ...
Monday, 17 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION IN 2013 FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN 20 YEARS
COALspot.com: U.S coal production for 2013 totaled an estimated 996 million short tons (MMst), 21 MMst (2%) lower than in 2012. It is the first time ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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