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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Tuesday, 25 February 14
SGX'S MONTHLY VOLUMES DRASTICALLY INCREASED AND REACHED A RECORD OF 810K TONNES YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: SGX Thermal Coal derivatives started the new year with record volumes in January on the back of higher volatility, says SGX.
Accord ...
Monday, 24 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with slo ...
Monday, 24 February 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY APRIL - JUNE 2014 SLIDES TO $ 58.60 PMT
COALspot.com – Indonesia, the world’s the largest exporter of the thermal coal's swaps for delivery April - June 2014 slide week ended ...
Monday, 24 February 14
Q1 2015 DELIVERY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT 2.62% HIGHER THAN Q2 2014 CLOSING SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 deliveries lost 2.68 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.20 per mt as on Fr ...
Saturday, 22 February 14
SHIPPING POISED TO RALLY AFTER SEVERAL WEEKS OF DROP
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady to firm with the dry bulk index up by 6.24 pct closing at 1,175 points week on week and the cape index w ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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