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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Saturday, 22 February 14
POTEN RAISES THE QUESTION OF ACCURACY IN CALCULATING TANKER FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the tanker market has grown in complexity over the course of the past few years, the question of whether the traditional methods of assessing rat ...
Friday, 21 February 14
INDONESIA PLAN TO CAP COAL OUTPUT AND HIKE ROYALTY; START MUSIC
COALspot.com: Energy and Mineral Resources Ministy of Indonesia is planning to increase the royalty for coal miners particularly for Mining Business ...
Friday, 21 February 14
THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST COAL MINER MINED 19.2 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, mined approximately 19.2 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a w ...
Friday, 21 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET SHOWS SIGNS OF LIFE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has slowly started to emerge from the downfall it's been since the start of the year, as rates have began to pick up over the c ...
Friday, 21 February 14
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT CAP TO HURT MINERS RELIANT ON VOLUME GROWTH, FITCH SAYS
Fitch Ratings says that the credit profiles of mining sub-contractors and miners highly reliant on increasing volumes to support high debt servicing w ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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