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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Monday, 17 February 14
Q1 2015 COAL SWAPS CLOSED $ 2.21 HIGHER THAN Q2 2014 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q2 14 delivery lost 3.16 percent month on month and closed at US$ 76.12 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 16 February 14
SUPRAMAX : THE FAR EAST/SE ASIA CHARTER RATES FIRMED UP
COALspot.com: The freight market had a mixed reaction this week with BDI increased by 1.37 pct and closing at 1106 points on Valentine day. The cape ...
Friday, 14 February 14
US COAL PRODUCTION STILL SLIPPING
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
PANAMAX : NOT ENOUGH REQUIREMENTS TO KEEP THE ATLANTIC MARKET FLOATING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
After the Chinese holidays the week started on a positive note. Owners are talking higher rates but chrtrs are still somehow reluctant to mov ...
Thursday, 13 February 14
DRY BULK MARKET FACES BETTER PROSPECTS ON THE BACK OF IMPROVING DEMAND AND SUPPLY BALANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has started off the New Year on the "left foot", with the strong finish of 2013 proving to be unsustainable, on the ba ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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