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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Thursday, 30 January 14
JPU SETTLEMENT PRICE AS A BENCHMARK WILL DECLINE IN IMPORTANCE BUT REMAIN RELEVANT, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
JPU price will remain above spot, trending closer to spot till 2015 then increasing to 2035.
Japanese Power Utilities (JPU) are approaching a cru ...
Thursday, 30 January 14
PANAMAX MARKET IS SOFTENING ON LESS ACTIVITY IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
In the Atlantic rates have been slowly sliding but ows can still achieve decent money for TArv´s. USG positions still being fixed in re ...
Thursday, 30 January 14
TANKER PROFITABILITY IS THE 'MILLION-DOLLAR' QUESTION FOR SHIP OWNERS THIS YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The tanker market conditions are expected to remain challenging throughout the year for tanker owners, but even more pressing will be the issue of a ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
GLOBAL COKING AND STEAM COAL PRODUCTION HAVE GROWN 2% TO 3% TO ABOUT 7.1 BILLION TONNES AS OF THE END OF 2013 - VDKI
COALspot.com (Press Release): Initial figures on the world hard coal market at the VDKi ((Association of Coal Importers - German) New Year’s R ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS JUMP 13.75% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 27 January 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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