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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Tuesday, 21 January 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED SLIGHTLY MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 20 January 14, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2. ...
Monday, 20 January 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP SEEN LOWER IN 2ND HALF OF 2014
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost $ 0.78 pmt month on month on Friday 17 January 2014. T ...
Monday, 20 January 14
THE CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL MARKET APPEARS TO HAVE LOST DIRECTION
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 4.25 percept month on month and closed at US$ 79.48 per mt as ...
Sunday, 19 January 14
FREIGHT MARKETS SEE CONTINUED WEAK PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The market has continued to soften particularly in the far East/SE Asia sector.
The BDI was down 6 pct week on week, the index was ...
Friday, 17 January 14
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN WEEK ON WEEK: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of co ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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