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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 01 January 14
COAL & OIL TO SET UP ANOTHER 1,600 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA - VENKATARAMANI
COALspot.com: Dubai-based Coal & Oil (C&O) Group is planning to make additional investment of around US$ 1.61 billion to set up 1,600 mega w ...
Wednesday, 01 January 14
DRY BULK CARRIER OWNERS ANTICIPATING AN EVEN STRONGER 2014 YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
To begin with, The Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team would like to wish you all a Happy and Prosperous 2014! We begin the New Year with our firs ...
Tuesday, 31 December 13
INDONESIA'S COAL PRODUCTION COULD HIT 450 MMT IN 2014 - ICMA
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the fourth largest coal producer and largest coal exporter in the world, to increase coal output in year 2014 instead of th ...
Tuesday, 31 December 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Tuesday, 31 December 13
MORE THAN $21 BILLION INVESTED IN SECOND HAND SHIP PURCHASES IN 2013
One thing that was apparent in the sale and purchasing markets during 2013 was the ship owners' larger appetite for vessel acquisitions, as most so ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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