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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 06 January 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS SLIDE TO $ 61.25 FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost $ 0.32 pmt month on month on Friday 3 January 2014. Th ...
Sunday, 05 January 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 80.05, A $ 0.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 1.40 percept day on day closed at US$ 80.95 per mt as o ...
Sunday, 05 January 14
CENTRAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION OF INDIA REGISTERS CASES IN CONNECTION WITH ALLEGED SUPPLY OF LOW QUALITY INDONESIAN COAL BY A PRIVATE COMPANY TO NTPC & NSPCL
COALspot.com: The Central Bureau of Investigation of India has registered two cases regarding alleged supply of low quality imported Indonesian coal ...
Saturday, 04 January 14
THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT TO DOWNSIZE ITS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET TO 400 MMT THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesia to downsize its coal production target to 400 million tons in 2014, lower than the production in 2013, which stood at 421 mi ...
Friday, 03 January 14
IN 2013 RBCT HAS, FOR THE FIRST TIME, EXPORTED MORE THAN 70 MILLION TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay coal terminal, the world’s largest single coal exporting terminal shipped 6.788 million tonnes of c ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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