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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 09 January 14
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA FREIGHT IS NOW DOWN IN THE $8S AND STILL DROPPING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
In the Atlantic we see rates sliding slowly for the start of 2014. Several players cvrd over the holidays and the rate decline was som ...
Thursday, 09 January 14
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2013 AND LOOKING FORWARD GLOBAL ECONOMY: STEADY AS SHE GOES UPWARDS - BIMCO
Over the past year, developed economies have gained traction while developing and emerging economies have suffered from slower growth. Despite key e ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS LOOKING BRIGHTER DESPITE SLOW START TO THE NEW YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market's benchmark, the BDI has been on a fall since the start of 2014, ending yesterday's session down to 1,87 ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FALL
COALspot.com: In the week ended January 6, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.27 m ...
Wednesday, 08 January 14
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST SOME OF ITS STEAM THESE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS: INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Softer- / Dry: Softer- )
The Dry Bulk market has lost some of its steam these past couple of days although hires, espe ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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