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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 15 January 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL BY 6.57% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 6.57 percept month on month and closed at US$ 78.90 per mt as ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
INDONESIAN MINING LAW AVERTS BOP PRESSURE, RISKS REMAIN, FITCH SAYS
The last-minute intervention at the weekend by Indonesia's politicians to avert a significant disruption of mining activity and exports, should lim ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
Q3 AND Q4 INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS DECLINE MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost $ 1.23 pmt month on month on Friday 10 January 2014. T ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
PANAMAX: PACIFIC - REMAINED QUIET; ATLANTIC - CONTINUED THEIR RETREAT
COALspot.com: The holiday hangover seems well underway for the Dry Bulk market that saw more ground being lost this past week. The BDI has closed of ...
Tuesday, 14 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FALL 18.28 %
COALspot.com: In the week ended January 13, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.67 ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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