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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 21 January 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED SLIGHTLY MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 20 January 14, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2. ...
Monday, 20 January 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP SEEN LOWER IN 2ND HALF OF 2014
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost $ 0.78 pmt month on month on Friday 17 January 2014. T ...
Monday, 20 January 14
THE CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL MARKET APPEARS TO HAVE LOST DIRECTION
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 4.25 percept month on month and closed at US$ 79.48 per mt as ...
Sunday, 19 January 14
FREIGHT MARKETS SEE CONTINUED WEAK PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The market has continued to soften particularly in the far East/SE Asia sector.
The BDI was down 6 pct week on week, the index was ...
Friday, 17 January 14
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN WEEK ON WEEK: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of co ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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