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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 08 January 14
SHIPPING: THE ABSOLUTE BOTTOM OF THE CYCLE WAS REACHED AND PASSED - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
COALspot.com: To many in the industry 2013 has been the turning point in the market where the absolute bottom of the cycle was reached and passed.
...
Tuesday, 07 January 14
INDONESIA RAISES COAL PRICE THIS MONTH
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has increased government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 1.59 / MT ...
Tuesday, 07 January 14
NEWCASTLE COAL TERMINAL'S COAL EXPORTS SLIDE TO 3.54 MMT W/E 30 DECEMBER 13
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 30, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.54 ...
Tuesday, 07 January 14
US COAL OUTPUT SLIDES 9 PCT WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 17.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Monday, 06 January 14
ARGUS LAUNCHES SPOT CFR EAST COAST INDIA COAL ASSESSMENTS
COALspot.com: Global energy and commodity news and price reporting agency Argus has announced today that, the company has launched CFR coal assessme ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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