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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 30 December 13
INDONESIAN COAL TO BE PART OF INDEX DETERMINING POWER TARIFFS - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a significant move, power sector regulator CERC has decided to provide 50 per cent weightage for Indonesian coal in the benchmark index that is u ...
Friday, 27 December 13
THE EXPORT OF UNPROCESSED MINERALS WOULD NOT BE ALLOWED AFTER 12 JAN 2014 - INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTER
COALspot.com: The government of Indonesia will implement Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal in full and consistently by January 12, 2014, said, m ...
Friday, 27 December 13
INDONESIA SHIPPED 15.75 PERCENT MORE COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's 4th largest coal producer and the largest multi grade coal exporter shipped over $2* billion worth of co ...
Thursday, 26 December 13
COAL & OIL GROUP SECURES US$ 250 MILLION FUNDING FOR ITS 1200MW THERMAL POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Dubai-based Coal & Oil (C&O) Group has announced that it has secured additional funding of approximately Dhs. 1 billion (appro ...
Wednesday, 25 December 13
DRY BULK INDEX LOST SOME GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Softer - )
The Dry Bulk Index lost some ground this past week, on the back of activity slowing down befor ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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