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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 25 December 13
SHIPPING : AS FAR AS THIS CYCLE IS CONCERNED, 'WE HAVE SEEN THE WORST....!' - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In a week’s time the year comes to an end. Having been a speaker in two seminars over the past 5 days I was able to see the year ending trends ...
Tuesday, 24 December 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS UP 11.46% W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 23, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.84 ...
Tuesday, 24 December 13
SGX HAS LAUNCHED FREIGHT FUTURES
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (SGX) has announced the launch of freight future yesterday.
According to SGX’s press release, SGX has laun ...
Monday, 23 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR AVERAGE Q1' 14 CLOSED AT $ 82.80
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 2.97 percept month on month as on Friday 20 December 2013. ...
Sunday, 22 December 13
Q1' 14 DELIVERY COAL SWAPS CLOSING HIGH COMPARED TO Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.31 pmt month on month on Friday 20 December 2013 ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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