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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 18 December 13
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SCALED BACK AS FREIGHT RATES RISE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's always been the case that each time we witness a spike in freight rates, demolition activity is decreasing, as owners are looking for more car ...
Tuesday, 17 December 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS UP 37.83% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 16, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.45 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST $ 0.53 IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 0.91 pmt month on month on Friday 13 December 2013 ...
Monday, 16 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3' 14 DELIVERY PRICE CLOSED $1.63 LESSER THAN Q1' 14 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 5.34 percept month on month as on Friday 13 December 2013. ...
Sunday, 15 December 13
SUPRAMAX'S FREIGHT RALLY COMES TO AN END THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 7 pct closing at 2,330 points week on week and the cape index was also up by 10.51 points and closed at 4,246 points ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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