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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK impor ...
Friday, 13 December 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS HEALTHY DEMAND MOVING FORWARD - ICS
The Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers Greek Branch organised its 9th Annual Forum at Eugenides Foundation, on Wednesday, 11th of December, with a r ...
Friday, 13 December 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 18.4 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL W/E 7 DECEMBER 2013
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 12 December 13
GREAT EXPECTATIONS SANCTIONED - EVA TZIMA
News that sanctions on Iranian oil exports could be lifted sometime in the following months have shaken the markets recently. One of the world&rsquo ...
Wednesday, 11 December 13
THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING SETTING A REGULATION ON THE MINIMUM PURITY TO REGULATE UNPROCESSED ORE BAN
COALspot.com: Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik recently proposed to house those mining (mineral) companies that had shown a commitme ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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