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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 09 December 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.57 LESSER THAN Q1 CLOSING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.49 pmt month on month on Friday 6 Decembe ...
Sunday, 08 December 13
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SHOW A DECLINE TREND IN Q2 & Q3' 14
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 6.76 percept month on month as on Friday 6 December 2013. T ...
Sunday, 08 December 13
RBCT SHIPPED 63.446 MMT OF COALS YTD
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's single largest coal terminal has shipped 63,446,232 mt of coals YTD, according to por ...
Saturday, 07 December 13
SUPRAMAX SHIPS FOR EC INDIA TO CHINA ROUTE BEING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 13K - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be firm due to high Iron ore demand. The cape index was up by almost 25 pct this week. The grain seaso ...
Saturday, 07 December 13
A RARE TIME IN RECENT SHIPPING MARKET HISTORY: BOTH DRY BULK AND VLCC TANKER EARNINGS ARE ON THE RISE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Around this time of year, back in 2008, i.e. five years ago, the shipping markets were plagued with the aftermath of the global financial crisis tha ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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